A year ago in a post about law school applications decreasing, I speculated about whether a similar phenomenon would occur with medical schools.
In that post, I commented on the impending problem of too many medical school graduates and not enough residency training positions. I cited an article that appeared in the New England Journal of Medicine in 2011 in which the CEO of the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education predicted that by 2015 or sooner there would be more graduates of US medical schools than residency positions leading to specialty certification.
The data for the 2014 residency match have not been released publicly so the outcomes for graduates of US med schools are unknown.
However, the Educational Commission for Foreign Medical Graduates says [here] that of the 26,678 residency positions offered, only 53% of US citizen graduates of offshore medical schools (US-IMGs) and 49.5% of non-US citizen offshore grads matched.
A look at the websites of two of the more prominent Caribbean schools, St. George's University and Ross University, shows that most of their graduates who matched ended up in non-procedural specialties like internal medicine or family medicine.
St. George's lists 760 graduates and Ross 783. [They take two groups of enrollees per year at different starting times.] St. George's matched 22 (2.8%) and Ross 18 (2.3%) in categorical 5-year general surgery positions. To look at it another way, of some 1200 categorical slots, 40 (3.3%) graduates of the two most well-known Caribbean schools are on track to become general surgeons.